The Ongoing Mission of January Barometer a trading division of Webtrading is providing traders with knowledge on time-tested ways to predict the year-end market level based on extensive validation and testing over several decades of stock market price trends using a market indicator we refer to as The "January Barometer" or The "January Indicator" which has an amazing propensity to correctly predict yearly market price direction, the market's long-range trend and comparative price level vs the prior year, at year-end.
The January Barometer and January Indicator can forecast how you are able to make more money by selling (not buying) the markets in 2016. The price and trend direction of the stock market in January can accurately predict overall market direction for the remainder of the current year. It is known as The January Indicator, which is also known as The January Barometer.
Does the month of January really have special forecasting ability? Yes! Statistics for the January Indicator are very strong overall. For example, the S&P 500 index ended January 2016 with a 5% drop. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 5.5% while the NASDAQ Composite Index did even worse, down 7.9% in January. When the snow flies in a cold January what does the January Indicator or Barometer tell us for the remainder of the year?
The Dow Jones industrial Average originated in year 1896. Since 1896 a higher January was followed by an up-year an impressive 75% of the time. However, the January Barometer is not as accurate coming from a poorly performing month of January, with a lower probability of 61% forecasting the Dow Industrials (DJIA) will conclude the year in minus territory.
If you study the "JanuaryBarometer" and "JanuaryIndicator" over the last 44-years (starting in year 1972) it has done even better by accurately predicting the DJIA price level for the full year an extremely impressive and amazing 90% of the time. The fact the Dow does better vs the Nasdaq Average based on the January Barometer also indicates there are money making possibilities by trading long-term expiration index spreads during the year by going long the Mini Dow and going short the Mini Nasdaq, as an interesting spread-trading example.
There's a Really Simple Way to Predict Market Turning Points and Impress Your Friends Who Will Think You Are a Genius!
This special traders report is about predicting futures market turning points in the stock market or futures markets. This is how it works; If I tell you to pick any date in the future on the calendar for any stock index, stock, forex or futures market and I will show you the next market turning point relative to that date you may think I am either nuts or doubt my claim. The truth is anyone can really do this with a surprising accuracy of say 3-days about 70% of the time, or within 4-days about 80% to 90% of the time. Isn't that amazing!
This interesting market indicator can even seemingly predict accurately if lacking any trading knowledge or experience in trading the markets. The secret is based on how you define a "market turning point" for example, let's assume we define intermediate market swings a.k.a. turning-points to take place roughly 25 times a year, or twice monthly. Since there are about 250 trading days in the year this method can predict on average 1 turning point every 10-days or so.
Using a dart and calendar to look into the future, the dart will hit a 7-day time interval (the day the dart hit - plus or minus 3-days) every time it is thrown at the dart board calendar. If we say chart-based market turning points occur on average once every ten days, there's a high 70% chance my dart will include a price turning point within 3-days or less.
In addition, if I already could see on last weeks price charts there was an obvious and defined low, my next turning point would be a market peak. I am not necessarily interested predicting far into the future as I may not live that long and can only make money if I can bet on the upcoming and next market turning point for various cycle lengths.
It is entirely possible key market turning points can be predicted with even more reliability than indicated here. And it's potentially possible to provide good estimates of the next peak and next trough for each major time cycle period. Using a method which treats peaks independent of troughs can produce a non-regular period between peaks and troughs (a more realistic price pattern) for future market cycles.
Before spending your hard-earned money on any trading method or trading system, be careful to discover what you can do under purely chance conditions without a costly mechanical trading system. The original base article (which was enhanced, modified, added to and edited by webtrading's editor) was originally written by Bob Pelletier, President of CSI (csidata.com), used with Bob's permission. For more information about CSI, commodities futures trading, web-trading or trading systems, visit Webtrading, the traders portal.
As a side-note, webtrading is now researching and exploring ways the January-Barometer & January-Indicator can be successfully blended and merged with the Simple Way to Predict Market Turning Points prediction technique when combined with our unique drawdown minimizer logic to produce a new powerful trading system. Stay tuned for more news and updates, or be notified when ready by joining our ezine mailing list.
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