Dear Trading Friend, As a reminder, you are getting email from us because
you either once asked to go on this Traders Ezine list, or requested info
on a trading related subject we normally cover via this communications
method, or you are a client of ours. Your email address and other
information will be kept confidential per our online Privacy Pledge. Of
course, you may opt-off this Traders Ezine at any time if you do not find
this trading knowledge useful.
--------------------
In this Edition of Traders Ezine we offer an amazing article by our
Downunder Aussie Friend, and also some interesting Editor Comments and
Proposals. In fact, our Downunder friend’s article is so fabulous as far
as the stated profit potential, that we devoted most of this issue to it,
especially since the article and editor comments are so extensive.
An Aussie Experience - Greg from Downunder
Hi guys. I am a new (Webtrading/CTCN) Member, but have been camping on
your site and soaking up the knowledge for some time now. Dave asked me to
make a contribution and I could not possibly refuse after freeloading off
your site for so long.
I think you are truly blessed to have a market that does not have the
systemic inefficiencies that we have here in the land of Aus. Over here,
trading is more like a chook raffle as there are quite a few structural
weaknesses that contribute and in some ways ensure failure.
For instance, in Aus you can only go long, or else sell what you already
hold. This means that you are restricted to playing only on one half of
the field but have to kick for the goals in the other half. Talk about a
stacked deck! Our markets do not have the liquidity and volume necessary
to provide any sustained stimulus to prices. Which means stocks try to
make a run for it but usually fizzle out because of a lack of fuel.
We also do not have automatic (electronic) stop loss facilities. Most
brokers will work off a simple spreadsheet system which is tardy at best.
Many of the facilities you take for granted are unavailable in Aus. We
don’t ride around on camels and yes, we do have the technology so I can
only assume it is all set up to keep the market moving in one direction,
i.e., up. Generally good for long term investors and mutual funds but
lousy for traders.
I have been trading your U.S. Futures for about 18-months (although it
seems like twice as long) and doing quite nicely, thanks in part to a
great software program called (Name Withheld by Editor – See P.S.). In my
search for the Holy Grail I have spent about $20,000 plus, on various
software and indicators but I keep coming back to (Name Withheld by
Editor).
I have been trading mostly the EOD stuff and at times have had up to 11
open positions. A mate of mine once criticized me for overtrading and I
gave it some thought. But, on reflection, I don’t think I do because I can
go for several days or weeks waiting for a setup. Conversely, once its
there I take it. If it happens that I finish up with quite a few open
positions at the same time then so be it. I don’t control the number of
set ups - the market does that.
Being a naturally greedy person, I figured that if I was doing so well
with the EOD stuff I should make a fortune with the real time. I started
trading the S&P and had a few wins (more luck than good judgment) until I
realized what a dummy I was putting up with the slow fills and slow
reporting and trying to mix it with the big boys.
I also got scalped by the brokers because they basically give you whatever
price they like. Suffered a similar experience with brokers on the DOW
contract. They kept filling me 10 points away from the price action.
That’s when the light went on and I started trading the E-mini S&P.
Quicker fills, no scalping and flexibility to vary the size of my
position.
All the while I traded the ES contract I kept an eye on the DOW and the
Nasdaq. I must say I wasn’t too partial to the channeling tendencies of
the ES. It didn’t take me very long to switch to the E-mini Nasdaq as it
appeared to be more trendy and less congested. So I have stuck with the
NQ for some time now. Every so often I glance across at the ES but still
come back to the NQ. I feel that this is where the grass is greener. If
you compare the charts of the ES and NQ attached you will notice that the
ES is a bit trickier.
I own both versions of (Name Withheld by Editor). It seemed forever before
I found out that the wave counts on the shorter time frames have a habit
of changing their minds and also taking your money. I wasn’t able to
duplicate and multiply my EOD results. Shock, horror! Back to the drawing
board!
I trade mainly on a 1-min chart using the 5-min, 15-min, and 60-min for
reference. Does this help? Sometimes I wonder. On a 1-min it is difficult
to figure out the trend. There are strong moves in both directions. The
wave counts on the longer 5-min time frame are usually more helpful in
terms of indicating the direction. For instance, if we are on a W3 down on
the 5-min I look to short all the pullbacks or follow throughs on the 1
min.
I played around with (Name Withheld by Editor) but could not come up with
anything reliable. Most of the time it signified a neutral trend and then
went into down or up trend just before the end of the move. Too late –
which is the story with most indicators!
A couple of the charts I have included don’t have the wave counts because
when I went back at the end of the night I found all the counts had moved
to the most recent time frame. So, I have included a chart from last night
to give you a better feel for this.
Editor’s Note: This Traders Ezine is quite large, using only text, so if
we included Greg’s Bitmap Format Graphics Charts, it would take up huge
amounts of KB’s, far too much to transmit via an email.
For those of you who may not know this, graphic files (i.e. charts) are
amazingly large compared to text, resulting in email transmission times
most of us would not tolerate, including my Server, who puts limits on the
size of these emails.
Therefore, Greg’s five charts will only be included with our upcoming
printed and mailed issue of CTCN, now at the printer. It is only sent to
our paid Commodity Traders Club News Members. If you are getting this and
are not a paid CTCN Member I urge you to join our group NOW!
This occasional confusion with the wave-counts on the 1-min (see chart 5)
made me desperate to find a filter. After lots of experimentation I
settled on the simple (Name Withheld by Editor) and (Name Withheld by
Editor). The (Name Withheld by Editor) turned out to be quite a discovery.
It does an excellent job in both removing guesswork and tightening up the
stop for an exit at the end of the move. At the beginning of the move it
leaves a bit of space for a mild reaction but as the move progresses it
snuggles up so that you don’t leave too much profit on the table. Quite
exciting to watch and of course fully automatic with no stressful
guesswork.
Is this use of the (Name Withheld by Editor) a cop-out for an Elliott fan?
You betcha! Call me fickle, call me anything, so long as you put
“profitable” in front of it.
No Brainer
The (Name Withheld by Editor), (on the fine tuned but not-optimized
setting) can be used as a no brainer and purely as a stop and reverse with
very good results. The following are the trades for 22 Nov:
Time Order Price P/L Time Order Price P/L
9.31 buy 1 2767.50 13.14 buy 2 2719 -19.50
9.54 sell 2 2808.50 +40.50 13.29 sell 2 2746.50 +27.50
10.27 buy 2 2756.50 +51.50 13.53 buy 2 2750.50 - 4.00
10.37 sell 2 2751.00 -5.50 14.10 sell 2 2741.50 - 8.50
10.55 buy 2 2730.00 +21.00 14.44 buy 2 2715.50 +26.00
11.08 sell 2 2717.00 -13.00 14.55 sell 2 2707.50 - 8.00
11.28 buy 2 2718.50 -1.50 15.09 buy 2 2716.50 - 8.50
12.08 sell 2 2731.00 +12.50 15.31 sell 2 2721.50 + 5.50
12.25 buy 2 2713.00 +18.00 16.02 buy 1 2690.00 +31.50
12.32 sell 2 2707.00 - 6.00
12.53 buy 2 2708.00 - 1.00
13.05 sell 2 2699.50 - 8.50
Summary of Results
# of trades = 21, # Contracts traded = 40, Brokerage @ $4.95 = $198
Profit = 150 points @$20 = $ 3,000
less brokerage 198
Net Gain $ 2,802
Not bad for one nights work!
Evaluation
So there you have it - an almost foolproof guaranteed system that will put
$2,60% (that’s about $5,000 in real money) in your bank account most
nights. How much money is that in a year? Sorry, but my calculator does
not have that many digits. All it requires to make this thing work is an
eight year old or better still a trained monkey.
Will we trade it? Will we put this money into our bank accounts? Probably
not. Why??????
Here are some likely responses (or excuses) and also why I underlined the
word “almost” above.
Because………….
It's too easy
We want to make our own decisions so we can be proven right.
We don’t get to do our analysis
There are no big green or red arrows
It’s too robotic or mechanical, no room for intellect
I lost this ability when I went past the age of 8
If it’s so easy why isn’t everybody doing it?
I like second guessing – I am very good at it
I don’t want to spend five grand on software and data feeds
It looks like overtrading
It looks pretty stressful, I would rather strain my brain all
night to take one or two trades
I don’t like the packaging. I want to be sold.
If you try to sell me - where’s the rip off
It shows some losses in a row, therefore can’t be any good
Does this method work all the time and produce similar results. The answer
is – “Yes, Yes, and more Yes.” On really choppy range bound nights you
will have more trades and be less profitable but I have yet to come across
a night where you will not come out substantially in front.
If you use a broker like (Name Withheld by Editor) a lot of the “stress”
will be taken out of the system as they provide low cost, lightning fast
execution and a good degree of reliability.
Do I use this? Yes, on some nights. But then I have a huge advantage over
you because I am doing it during the night and most of the time my brain
isn’t working. Some nights I make the mistake of having a cup of coffee.
That’s when I wake up, start thinking, and also when everything starts to
go wrong. I am still working on a filter to reduce the number of trades
and increase the profit margin. Maybe I should take a sleeping pill
instead!
A word about the Nasdaq
This contract has changed a lot in the last six months (keep this as a
thought for all contracts – nothing stays the same and watch for character
changes). Much higher volume. I have seen an order to sell 250 get eaten
by buyers in 1-2 minutes. The price used to hardly move in the lunch
breaks but now we can see some reasonable shifts.
The ETH trading used to be a meandering, virtually horizontal, line
whereas now the chickens can move that contract 90 points before the big
boys come out to play. Of course, when the big boys see this they get
hopping mad and slam that sucker around for 5-8 gi-normous bars until they
kick out everyone’s stops. I try and stay out of this.
The fat boys also used to do this when they came back from lunch and
discovered that the chickens had been playing with their toys. But lately
they have turned a bit more docile. In any event you are likely to see
some big moves after lunch most days. More to do with digestive rather
than trading systems.
My Trading Style
Quite seriously, I am not that much different to the rest of us. I pretty
much use the same stuff. Support, resistance, trend lines, Fibs, etc. All
of which are illustrated on the charts attached. (Editor’s Note: For
reasons explained elsewhere, only published in the CTCN in-print postal
edition, mailed only to paid members of our Traders Club).
In addition to the wave counts (Name Withheld by Editor), has several
proprietary studies like the (Name Withheld by Editor) and (Name Withheld
by Editor) that are very good. You can check all this out by downloading
the demo at (Name Withheld by Editor).
I rely heavily on chart patterns – triangles, breakouts, etc. You can find
these on (Name Withheld by Editor). I am constantly looking for tight
stops which is why I favour reversal trades, you know, the bounce off a
Fib level, double-tops and bottoms etc. I don’t mind taking a breakout
trade but I have my finger on the trigger to cut immediately if it turns
into a head or tail fake. My stop is usually just below the breakout point
so that I exit with virtually no loss.
More importantly, - I operate on the Bunker mentality. Nothing comes in. I
(try to) ignore all broker recommendations, research analysis, friendly
opinions and traders chatter. When I trade I imagine myself sitting in a
dark, noiseless room. The window is open, but only for ventilation. All I
can see is my charts.
I find it very, very important to shut out all outside influences because
it affects my judgment and scrambles my brain, almost always costing me
money. I don’t need anybody or anything messing around with my spaghetti!
An exception to this is (Name Withheld by Editor), which I read daily. Mr.
(Name Withheld by Editor), basically does a chart read and he is a heck of
a lot better than me.
I have used Tradestation and a myriad of indicators with mixed success.
The grand daddy of indicators based systems is Omnitrader and their big
brother ARM2. A veritable smorgasbord for indicator lovers. Optimized,
non-optimized, back tested and forward-tested. (Name Withheld by Editor)
does a smashing job in this area. Overall, I have a bit of a love and hate
relationship with indicators. They are great at predicting the past but
often change their minds in real time (a bit like wave counts, I hear you
say).
I much prefer reading the charts. When I do my scans I put the charts on
(Name Withheld by Editor), and generally don’t spend more than 10 seconds
on each chart on the first run. On the second run I might do a more
in-depth analysis on the daily and weekly and finally use the 60-min for
my entries and exits.
A bit about Elliott Waves
Although I use Elliot with all my trading I think we can go a little
overboard in this area. I think it works very well on a probability basis
for the next move but I don’t think we should use it for predicting tidal
waves, lunar eclipses and presidential elections, if you know what I mean.
If you want highly accurate wave counts then I suggest you use (Name
Withheld by Editor).
But for day-to-day trading I prefer (Name Withheld by Editor) approach
which is more focused on finding the next profitable trade than getting an
accurate wave count. Frankly I don’t care with it’s (Name Withheld by
Editor) or a (Name Withheld by Editor), a (Name Withheld by Editor) or a
(Name Withheld by Editor). I just want to know – should I buy or sell and
can I expect to make money on this next trade. Leave the rest to the
academics.
More confidentially, there is another side to me that loves the serious
counting methods, and (Name Withheld by Editor) is incredibly good at
this. But I try and divorce this side of me from my day to daytrading and
save this stuff for the dinner party conversations.
Because of my preference to “read” charts I am not a great fan of
Tradestation. The charts are not that special and you can’t click and
drag, resize etc. Pretty backward I think. I find Quote.com software is
very good although they don’t present themselves as software people.
eSignal have very poor software and their data is expensive by comparison.
You can’t export the data to other software or do data grabs to make your
charts continuous on the smaller time frames.
One has to use Historybank to fill in the gaps. Of course if you are
trading the DAX you have buckleys chance of doing this because Historybank
only does U.S. contracts. So you must have a continuous connection for
some contracts if you don’t want data gaps. Pretty pathetic service from
eSignal. I suppose they can get away with it because they are seemingly in
cahoots with Omega Research and don’t get much competition from PC Quote,
who (in my experience) are an even worse alternative.
Please don’t take these last few comments to heart. At the end of the day
this is just background noise. My opinions don’t really matter. What
matters is that you get a system or method that you are comfortable with
and works for you.
Please note that I do not have a closed mind towards using any software or
any system. I guess when it comes down to it I don’t have a closed mind
about making money. I am always open to a better way. Happy to change. Not
much fun being an intellectual with a small bank account. Dumb and rich
can be infinitely better. I have similar thoughts about black-boxes. Hey,
if they can make consistent profits with small drawdowns lets leave the
mental challenges for the golf course. Happy trades.
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Editor’s Comments: In our Nov 10th Traders Ezine, Greg said “I have one
protégé at the moment, and the other person that I have taught is
consistently making five grand a WEEK.
I recall saying only 10% of that is considered good, at least by my
standards. With Greg trading the method it appears he can make as much as
$5,000 a DAY, most days, rather than “only” $5,000 a week!
To recap what Greg said in his article: He says he uses: “an almost
foolproof guaranteed system that will put $2,60%, that’s about $5,000 in
real money (I assume this means U.S Dollars), in your bank account most
nights (nights in Australia, days in the U.S.)
These are by far the most amazing profit statements I have ever heard in
my 18-years of trading commodity futures, never hearing more lucrative
ones!! Even $5,000-week in profits would be hugely profitable but to do
that most of the time on most days is amazingly incredible. Greg also said
in summary, “Does this method work all the time and produce similar
results. The answer is – “Yes, Yes, and more Yes..”
Please Greg, I ask you to consider this very serious and incredibly
profitable proposal. As an amazingly lucrative offer to you I propose the
following: It would be great if you could send me your daily trade signals
when they occur and I will immediately post them on one of our websites
for the benefit of everyone.
I realize there will be a slight delay but it will be relatively minor as
we could use AOL Instant Messaging, which I believe is basically
“instant”, even from half-way around the world. As a backup method we
could even use email, which I believe only takes 5 seconds (or less) from
almost anywhere.
Once I get the signal I will only need approx’ 7 seconds on average to
transfer it to my Server and Website using my FTP Software and High-Speed
ISP Connection. All told, we could do the Website Post in as quick as
approx 9 to 12 seconds, I would estimate, from the time you press your
Enter Key.
Due to perhaps some minor slippage getting in or out of the trades, due to
the estimated 9-12 second delay, our profits may be reduced from
$5,000-day (most days), to perhaps $4,000-day (most days). However, I
don’t think too many of us will complain! Actually, a 9-12 second delay
can surprisingly bring better results on some trades as it sometimes
actually results in better entry/exit points.
As far as compensation to you goes, since this Traders Ezine goes to more
than 2,100 traders and investors, I suspect we could easily get 60% of
our Eziner’s trading it in short order, especially if we offer the first
trade or two as freebies, and when they witness $4,000 to $5,000 most days
in profits (even that much per week would be great).
Let’s assume $4,000-day in profits times say 1,000 traders (about one-half
of our Ezine Members). In fact, I will definitely limit participation to
no more than 1,000 members as if too many trade the same method it may not
work as well.
However, the stock indices are huge liquid markets, so I suspect they
could absorb up to 1,000 of us trading the same system. That’s $4,000,000.
(U.S) profit per DAY for the estimated 1,000 of us trading it! Is my math
is right or is this an error by my calculator?
It is proposed Webtrading/Downunder, as the Trading Advisors, receive 20%
of the net profits generated. As far as collecting the money goes the
participating broker would wire my bank 20% of each traders profits first
thing the next morning. You an Webtrading/CTCN could split that 20% as a
way of compensating both of us. I would in—turn wire the proposed 60%
split each day directly to you.
If my math is right, that could result in approx’ $400,000 per day to you
(at 10%). There are about 250 trading days in the year. Let’s see, 250 X
$400,000 = $100,000,000 a Year (100-Million Dollars). However, my
calculator does not go that high so I am not sure about this number, so
please, you math experts out there double check this number!
Even after subtracting say 20% of net profits, our 1,000 estimated
participants will be getting near One Billion Dollars in Net Profits (I
think, but not sure as again my calculator does not go that high). Since
you say it “works most days” to the tune of approx’ $5000., let’s assume
(conservatively - based on what you have said) each trader makes $5,000
per day for three days a week, on average.
It means each trader would be projected to earn approx’ $750,000.00-Yr.,
based on 3 X $5,000 X 50-Weeks (with 2-weeks of vacation). Everyone would
sure need 2 weeks of holiday time with all the stress of making
three-quarters of a million dollars!
In time, members of our group could combine our monies and be so rich we
would actually be able to buy the Commodity Exchange, both in Sydney and
Chicago! That could be done even more rapidly if some of us started to
Pyramid our Contracts and Positions. As you may know, pyramiding can be
wildly profitable.
Please seriously consider this Greg! In addition to getting all the
required CFTC Regulatory Language signed-off of by our traders, both you
and I would likely have to register as U.S.A. CTA’s since you would be
giving trading advise, and we would be transmitting the trading signals
via our website.
Please note, we would not be acting act as Pool Operators or Money
Managers, but as CTA’s, and each individual trader would do his own
trades, perhaps through a participating broker we would recommend. All of
us could all use the same broker, in fact we could make that mandatory.
The Brokers Daily P&L Statements would also act as an accounting function
to verify everyones’ profit and make sure the proposed 20% is deducted and
wired out of the account the morning after each profitable trading day.
You should also become a registered U.S. CTA to make things above-board,
even though you are an Australian. It’s not difficult to become a
Commodity Trading Advisor, and I hear it only takes a few weeks on
average.
By coincidence, we already own the Website www.Trading-Advisors.com We
could easily use this website to post the trade signals. It’s a small and
very fast loading Website so Browser delay should not be a factor.
Greg, please do this for everyones’ benefit, especially yours! We can get
together on this very rapidly and start issuing signals on the website in
a matter of days. Let’s do it NOW! Please call me IMMEDIATELY to set this
up!!!!!!!!
I fear Greg, if more than 1,000 of us trade this method or advanced word
gets out about this it could cause its performance to deteriorate once
word gets out about this. Therefore, unfortunately, it was necessary to
edit your article slightly regarding the specific trading software program
you referred to and the other misc trading tools you use and referred to
in this article. I know I said I do not like editing contributor articles
and very rarely do so, but it was needed in this case.
Please note I edited those products and services out of your article, at
least for now, as I do not want advanced word getting out about this.
Still another reason for deleting the brand names is to save us all money
in setting this up. Even though you will send the signals via our website
and internet re-transmittal. I assume most of us will also want to acquire
the same trading system and tools you use, especially after they see a few
$4,000 winning days.
Once we sign everyone up for this and commence trading, we can then
purchase the trading method and other tools you use in bulk, and all of us
will save money with wholesale pricing. I am sure I could easily negotiate
the product/system purchases and low commissions on behalf of our proposed
Webtrading Group.
P.S. Greg, as an alternative or in addition to this proposal, we could
also offer your trading methodology in video tapes and/or trading seminars.
--------------------
Editor Comments: As mentioned before, re Real Success 2nd Edition Course,
we continue to get good reports on how the RS2 Video Tape Training Course
has been helping our trader clients, both daytraders and also longer term
position traders.
To help even more we have expanded the Course from four tapes to six
(2-Hrs each) Video Tapes. That’s approx 12-hrs of learning, including a
number of real-time 100% Internet Based trades made during the filming.
The 2 additional tapes have also been sent as a FREE bonus to RS2 clients.
They were mailed out last Friday so you should get them soon.
By the way, if you received the 2 free extra VCR Tapes and they were
empty, please let us know (by email) and we will mail out new ones. There
is no need to return the tapes. This problem is believed to be rare and
most of the tapes were OK.
We really appreciate our Sponsors as the revenue helps maintain our
websites and keeps our service and product prices low, in addition the
advertiser/sponsor may also offer a service or product to help you trade
better.
We are repeating this information as a change has been made to our
publishing schedule: Our publishing schedule is as follows: Approx’ 36
Email Traders Ezines per year (3 per month, spaced about 10-days apart),
and at a minimum of 2 printed postal mailed CTCN’s. We will be announcing
some great extra benefits (for paid Club Members only) starting the first
of the year.
This reduction in CTCN printed issues is due in part to more and more of
our articles and resources being targeted to Ezines and The Web. Also, we
have received considerable support and requests to do this more
electronically for its speed in delivering content and its great cost
effectiveness.
For example, the article by “Greg from Downunder” was received only a few
days ago, Nov 29. By sending it electronically you get it significantly
faster than is possible with printed issues of CTCN. However, it is nice
to get occasional printed issues in booklet format, so we will mail them
out at least twice per year, perhaps more.
Our Traders Ezine frequency is 3 electronic issues per month. This way you
will get more and more rapid trading knowledge to help you get on the road
to profitable trading! This is the first issue of December, 2000.
P.S.- This is repeated from our last issue. We believe 3 Ezine’s per month
is about right for you. By the way, aren’t those emails and email
newsletters you get from others, sometimes every day annoying! That’s far
too frequent a schedule. Getting them Daily makes them seem more like spam
than something of value.
The current in-print mailed issue (Issue 53) is finally completed and at
the printer. It was again delayed for various reasons. It should be mailed
to our paid members by Mid-December.
All the best, Dave Green, Editor/Publisher
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Editor’s Note: We greatly appreciate our Sponsors as the revenue helps
maintain our websites and keeps our service and product prices low, in
addition the advertiser/sponsor may also offer a service or product to
help you trade better.
P.S. If you are reading this and with a trading related firm, please go
here for Website Sponsorship information www.webtrading.com/advop.htm
-------------------
Here are some suggested trading related links:
Stephen A. Pierce, CTA, who wrote an extensive article in a Nov Traders
Ezine, is also a Webtrading.com paid website sponsor but not otherwise
affiliated with us. Please look at their services using this link
https://www.futures-trading-commodity-trading.com
The Money Mastery Course is a webtrading.com paid website sponsor but not
otherwise affiliated with us. Please look at their products using this
link https://www.webtrading.com/links/commoditytradingcourse.htm
More Info and to Order our Gann Commodities Course – Please note, we now
offer 2 Gann Courses, a low priced one we wrote and a re-publication of
Gann’s Original Commodity Course, including many of Mr. Gann’s hand-drawn
charts, plus some improvements and enhancements we have made to the
course. Remember, it is said W. D. Gann sold his Commodities Course in the
early 1950’s for $5,000 a copy. In those days it was enough money to buy a
real nice house!
https://www.webtrading.com/gann-commodities-course.htm
Commodity Traders Club Free Knowledge Based Primary Website
https://www.webtrading.com
Real Success 2nd Edition Trading Course Information and Buying Details are
located here https://www.traders.org/realsuccess2.htm
New RS-2 (New and Very Strong) 1-yr No-Strings-Attached Guarantee of
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